Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 32
Coritiba
COR
Grêmio
GRM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Coritiba54%
Draw23%
Grêmio23%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.29
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Coritiba get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession56%
34%Territory36%
41%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.05
8.2%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Coritiba, 4 for Grêmio. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.