Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 32
Santos
SAN
Bahia
BAH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Santos39%
Draw23%
Bahia38%
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.88
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
73%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.6%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–04.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession56%
39%Territory37%
37%From set plays36%
0.17Chance quality0.20
4.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Santos, 3 for Bahia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Santos
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.