Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 32
Vasco da Gama
VAS
Corinthians
COI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vasco da Gama52%
Draw25%
Corinthians23%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.10
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession53%
54%Territory44%
17%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vasco da Gama, 3 for Corinthians. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.