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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 32

Flamengo

FLA

Atlético-MG

ATL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Flamengo67%
Draw21%
Atlético-MG12%

Expected goals

1.97 – 0.74

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

46%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.7%
  • 2–012.9%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 1–19.6%
  • 3–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Flamengo will have the ball; Atlético-MG will not mind.

62%Possession52%
51%Territory39%
13%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.13
3.0%Directness4.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Flamengo, 3 for Atlético-MG. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.