Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 31
Bahia
BAH
Flamengo
FLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bahia22%
Draw22%
Flamengo55%
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.06
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bahia get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
56%Possession62%
37%Territory51%
36%From set plays13%
0.20Chance quality0.11
4.8%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bahia, 4 for Flamengo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.