Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 31
Grêmio
GRM
Cruzeiro
CRU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grêmio29%
Draw25%
Cruzeiro46%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession54%
36%Territory41%
24%From set plays24%
0.05Chance quality0.13
5.3%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Grêmio, 3 for Cruzeiro. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.