Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 31
Atlético-MG
ATL
Coritiba
COR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético-MG56%
Draw22%
Coritiba22%
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.29
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Coritiba get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
52%Possession49%
39%Territory34%
18%From set plays41%
0.13Chance quality0.13
4.1%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético-MG, 3 for Coritiba. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético-MG
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.