Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 30
Chapecoense
CHA
Athletico Paranaense
ATH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chapecoense41%
Draw25%
Athletico Paranaense34%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.49
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession42%
38%Territory40%
27%From set plays30%
0.09Chance quality0.11
5.8%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chapecoense, 3 for Athletico Paranaense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Chapecoense
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Athletico Paranaense
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.