Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 30
Bahia
BAH
Mirassol
MIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bahia62%
Draw19%
Mirassol19%
Expected goals
2.54 – 1.42
Over 2.5
74%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–06.3%
- 2–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession55%
37%Territory49%
36%From set plays37%
0.20Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bahia, 4 for Mirassol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.