Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 30
Coritiba
COR
Botafogo
BOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Coritiba37%
Draw25%
Botafogo39%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.69
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Coritiba get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession42%
34%Territory43%
41%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.07
8.2%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Coritiba, 4 for Botafogo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.