Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 30
Atlético-MG
ATL
Santos
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético-MG43%
Draw27%
Santos30%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.28
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–27.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Santos get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
52%Possession50%
39%Territory39%
18%From set plays37%
0.13Chance quality0.17
4.1%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético-MG, 3 for Santos. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético-MG
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.