Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 30
São Paulo
SOP
Vitória
VIT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
São Paulo49%
Draw27%
Vitória24%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.02
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession37%
39%Territory43%
33%From set plays32%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.1%Directness9.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for São Paulo, 3 for Vitória. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
São Paulo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.