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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 29

Athletico Paranaense

ATH

Atlético-MG

ATL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Athletico Paranaense39%
Draw26%
Atlético-MG35%

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.43

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 1–08.4%
  • 1–28.0%
  • 0–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Atlético-MG will have the ball; Athletico Paranaense will not mind.

42%Possession52%
40%Territory39%
30%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.13
7.3%Directness4.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Athletico Paranaense, 3 for Atlético-MG. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.