Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 29
Palmeiras
PAL
Bahia
BAH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Palmeiras55%
Draw22%
Bahia23%
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.35
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–07.0%
- 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession56%
42%Territory37%
31%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.20
5.3%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Palmeiras, 3 for Bahia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.