Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 29
Botafogo
BOT
Vasco da Gama
VAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Botafogo39%
Draw27%
Vasco da Gama34%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.37
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession50%
43%Territory54%
24%From set plays17%
0.07Chance quality0.10
6.0%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Botafogo, 3 for Vasco da Gama. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.