Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 28
Vitória
VIT
Cruzeiro
CRU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vitória42%
Draw25%
Cruzeiro33%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.47
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cruzeiro will have the ball; Vitória will not mind.
37%Possession54%
43%Territory41%
32%From set plays24%
0.11Chance quality0.13
9.1%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vitória, 3 for Cruzeiro. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.