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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 28

Athletico Paranaense

ATH

Bahia

BAH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Athletico Paranaense35%
Draw22%
Bahia43%

Expected goals

1.88 – 2.08

Over 2.5

74%

Both to score

75%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–17.9%
  • 1–27.8%
  • 2–27.3%
  • 2–17.0%
  • 1–35.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bahia will have the ball; Athletico Paranaense will not mind.

42%Possession56%
40%Territory37%
30%From set plays36%
0.11Chance quality0.20
7.3%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Athletico Paranaense, 3 for Bahia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.