Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 28
Grêmio
GRM
Palmeiras
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grêmio15%
Draw23%
Palmeiras63%
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.87
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.5%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession59%
36%Territory42%
24%From set plays31%
0.05Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Grêmio, 3 for Palmeiras. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.