Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 28
Atlético-MG
ATL
Chapecoense
CHA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético-MG49%
Draw27%
Chapecoense25%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.08
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession49%
39%Territory38%
18%From set plays27%
0.13Chance quality0.09
4.1%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético-MG, 3 for Chapecoense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético-MG
Chapecoense
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.