Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 28
Corinthians
COI
Fluminense
FLU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Corinthians37%
Draw29%
Fluminense34%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.23
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession50%
44%Territory34%
15%From set plays17%
0.12Chance quality0.13
5.4%Directness3.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Corinthians, 3 for Fluminense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fluminense
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.