Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 28
Vasco da Gama
VAS
Coritiba
COR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vasco da Gama58%
Draw20%
Coritiba22%
Expected goals
2.39 – 1.47
Over 2.5
73%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Coritiba get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession49%
54%Territory34%
17%From set plays41%
0.10Chance quality0.13
4.8%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vasco da Gama, 3 for Coritiba. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.