Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 21
São Paulo
SOP
Santos
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
São Paulo44%
Draw26%
Santos30%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.29
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession50%
39%Territory39%
33%From set plays37%
0.12Chance quality0.17
6.1%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for São Paulo, 3 for Santos. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
São Paulo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.