Major League Soccer · Matchweek 34
Minnesota United
MIN
San Jose Earthquakes
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Minnesota46%
Draw30%
San Jose25%
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.93
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.7%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession46%
44%Territory36%
27%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.14
5.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Minnesota, 3 for San Jose. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 495 matches, not the full season.