Major League Soccer · Matchweek 34
Houston Dynamo FC
HOU
St. Louis City
STL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Houston29%
Draw30%
St. Louis City41%
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.24
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Houston get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession50%
32%Territory33%
54%From set plays8%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.5%Directness6.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Houston, 3 for St. Louis City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 495 matches, not the full season.