Major League Soccer · Matchweek 34
Austin FC
AUS
Portland Timbers
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Austin FC24%
Draw23%
Portland53%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.92
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession47%
44%Territory42%
19%From set plays27%
0.12Chance quality0.14
6.9%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Austin FC, 3 for Portland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 495 matches, not the full season.