Major League Soccer · Matchweek 34
DC United
DCU
New York City FC
NEY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
DC United29%
Draw30%
NYCFC41%
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.28
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.8%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–010.2%
- 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession51%
44%Territory32%
39%From set plays39%
0.10Chance quality0.14
5.1%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for DC United, 3 for NYCFC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 495 matches, not the full season.