Major League Soccer · Matchweek 34
Chicago Fire FC
CHI
Columbus Crew
COL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chicago55%
Draw26%
Columbus19%
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.90
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
51%Possession55%
40%Territory36%
17%From set plays19%
0.17Chance quality0.13
4.8%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chicago, 2 for Columbus. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Chicago
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 495 matches, not the full season.