Major League Soccer · Matchweek 32
St. Louis City
STL
Portland Timbers
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Louis City60%
Draw21%
Portland19%
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.17
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession54%
39%Territory42%
17%From set plays29%
0.19Chance quality0.14
5.3%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Louis City, 3 for Portland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.