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Major League Soccer · Matchweek 32

Austin FC

AUS

Real Salt Lake

REA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Austin FC32%
Draw29%
Salt Lake39%

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.32

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.9%
  • 0111.2%
  • 109.9%
  • 009.5%
  • 128.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession53%
34%Territory49%
28%From set plays36%
0.14Chance quality0.12
5.0%Directness3.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Austin FC, 3 for Salt Lake. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.