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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Major League Soccer · Matchweek 32

New York City FC

NEY

Atlanta United

ATL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

NYCFC32%
Draw29%
Atlanta United40%

Expected goals

1.19 – 1.35

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 0–111.0%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 0–09.0%
  • 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

56%Possession53%
35%Territory44%
15%From set plays14%
0.07Chance quality0.13
3.9%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for NYCFC, 3 for Atlanta United. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.