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Major League Soccer · Matchweek 32

New England Revolution

NEW

Red Bull New York

RED

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

New England62%
Draw23%
NY Red Bulls16%

Expected goals

1.90 – 0.88

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1012.4%
  • 2011.1%
  • 1110.3%
  • 219.9%
  • 006.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

42%Possession49%
39%Territory51%
9%From set plays21%
0.21Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness3.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for New England, 3 for NY Red Bulls. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.