Major League Soccer · Matchweek 32
New England Revolution
NEW
Red Bull New York
RED
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
New England62%
Draw23%
NY Red Bulls16%
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.88
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 2–011.1%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession49%
39%Territory51%
9%From set plays21%
0.21Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for New England, 3 for NY Red Bulls. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
NY Red Bulls
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.