Major League Soccer · Matchweek 30
LA Galaxy
LAG
San Diego FC
SAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
LA Galaxy45%
Draw25%
San Diego FC30%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.35
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.2%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession55%
38%Territory43%
15%From set plays19%
0.13Chance quality0.13
4.6%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for LA Galaxy, 3 for San Diego FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.