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Major League Soccer · Matchweek 30

Red Bull New York

RED

Toronto FC

TOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

NY Red Bulls27%
Draw26%
Toronto47%

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.59

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.9%
  • 0110.6%
  • 129.4%
  • 027.7%
  • 107.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

49%Possession42%
51%Territory41%
21%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.14
3.2%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for NY Red Bulls, 2 for Toronto. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.