Major League Soccer · Matchweek 30
Red Bull New York
RED
Toronto FC
TOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
NY Red Bulls27%
Draw26%
Toronto47%
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.59
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
49%Possession42%
51%Territory41%
21%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.14
3.2%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for NY Red Bulls, 2 for Toronto. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
NY Red Bulls
Toronto
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.