Major League Soccer · Matchweek 29
San Diego FC
SAD
Houston Dynamo FC
HOU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
San Diego FC29%
Draw30%
Houston41%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.25
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 0–113.1%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession60%
43%Territory43%
19%From set plays17%
0.13Chance quality0.08
4.2%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for San Diego FC, 3 for Houston. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.