Major League Soccer · Matchweek 29
Los Angeles FC
LOS
Austin FC
AUS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
LAFC57%
Draw24%
Austin FC19%
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession48%
42%Territory34%
22%From set plays28%
0.12Chance quality0.14
6.0%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for LAFC, 3 for Austin FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.