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Major League Soccer · Matchweek 29

LA Galaxy

LAG

Portland Timbers

POR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

LA Galaxy36%
Draw25%
Portland39%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.64

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.6%
  • 128.4%
  • 218.1%
  • 016.9%
  • 226.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession54%
38%Territory42%
15%From set plays29%
0.13Chance quality0.14
4.6%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for LA Galaxy, 3 for Portland. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.