Major League Soccer · Matchweek 29
Chicago Fire FC
CHI
Philadelphia Union
PHI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chicago21%
Draw25%
Philadelphia54%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.77
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.2%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
53%Possession55%
46%Territory52%
20%From set plays9%
0.10Chance quality0.16
3.3%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Chicago, 2 for Philadelphia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.