Major League Soccer · Matchweek 28
St. Louis City
STL
LA Galaxy
LAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Louis City66%
Draw20%
LA Galaxy15%
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.99
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession49%
39%Territory38%
17%From set plays15%
0.19Chance quality0.13
5.3%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Louis City, 3 for LA Galaxy. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.