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Major League Soccer · Matchweek 28

Sporting Kansas City

SPO

Portland Timbers

POR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sporting KC46%
Draw23%
Portland32%

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.69

Over 2.5

70%

Both to score

72%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 118.6%
  • 218.5%
  • 227.2%
  • 126.9%
  • 315.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

49%Possession54%
41%Territory42%
4%From set plays29%
0.10Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sporting KC, 3 for Portland. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.