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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Major League Soccer · Matchweek 28

Austin FC

AUS

Nashville SC

NAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Austin FC27%
Draw28%
Nashville SC45%

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.42

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 0–112.4%
  • 0–09.6%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 1–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

48%Possession48%
34%Territory37%
28%From set plays30%
0.14Chance quality0.11
5.0%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Austin FC, 2 for Nashville SC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.