Major League Soccer · Matchweek 28
Toronto FC
TOR
CF Montréal
CFM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toronto63%
Draw22%
Montreal16%
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.96
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.8%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession50%
41%Territory40%
16%From set plays8%
0.14Chance quality0.07
5.5%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Toronto, 2 for Montreal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toronto
Montreal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.