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Major League Soccer · Matchweek 28

Philadelphia Union

PHI

Real Salt Lake

REA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Philadelphia66%
Draw20%
Salt Lake14%

Expected goals

2.15 – 0.91

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2010.9%
  • 1010.7%
  • 219.9%
  • 119.1%
  • 307.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

55%Possession53%
52%Territory49%
9%From set plays36%
0.16Chance quality0.12
4.4%Directness3.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Philadelphia, 3 for Salt Lake. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.