Major League Soccer · Matchweek 28
Philadelphia Union
PHI
Real Salt Lake
REA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Philadelphia66%
Draw20%
Salt Lake14%
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.91
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.9%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession53%
52%Territory49%
9%From set plays36%
0.16Chance quality0.12
4.4%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Philadelphia, 3 for Salt Lake. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Philadelphia
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.