Major League Soccer · Matchweek 28
Red Bull New York
RED
San Diego FC
SAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
NY Red Bulls43%
Draw28%
San Diego FC29%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.17
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession55%
51%Territory43%
21%From set plays19%
0.08Chance quality0.13
3.2%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for NY Red Bulls, 3 for San Diego FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
NY Red Bulls
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.