Major League Soccer · Matchweek 28
Chicago Fire FC
CHI
New York City FC
NEY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chicago51%
Draw27%
NYCFC22%
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.93
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
53%Possession56%
46%Territory35%
20%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.07
3.3%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Chicago, 2 for NYCFC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.