Major League Soccer · Matchweek 27
Austin FC
AUS
San Diego FC
SAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Austin FC45%
Draw27%
San Diego FC27%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.12
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.4%
- 0–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession55%
34%Territory43%
28%From set plays19%
0.14Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Austin FC, 3 for San Diego FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.