Major League Soccer · Matchweek 27
Philadelphia Union
PHI
Orlando City
ORL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Philadelphia66%
Draw19%
Orlando15%
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.09
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–18.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession55%
52%Territory36%
9%From set plays4%
0.16Chance quality0.17
4.4%Directness2.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Philadelphia, 3 for Orlando. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Philadelphia
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.