Major League Soccer · Matchweek 27
Red Bull New York
RED
St. Louis City
STL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
NY Red Bulls23%
Draw26%
St. Louis City51%
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.61
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.8%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession55%
51%Territory39%
21%From set plays17%
0.08Chance quality0.19
3.2%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for NY Red Bulls, 3 for St. Louis City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
NY Red Bulls
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.