Major League Soccer · Matchweek 26
St. Louis City
STL
Toronto FC
TOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Louis City48%
Draw25%
Toronto27%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.31
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession42%
39%Territory41%
17%From set plays16%
0.19Chance quality0.14
5.3%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Louis City, 2 for Toronto. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toronto
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.