Major League Soccer · Matchweek 26
Minnesota United
MIN
LA Galaxy
LAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Minnesota51%
Draw23%
LA Galaxy27%
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.47
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.7%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession49%
42%Territory38%
11%From set plays15%
0.15Chance quality0.13
4.4%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Minnesota, 3 for LA Galaxy. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.