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Major League Soccer · Matchweek 26

Minnesota United

MIN

LA Galaxy

LAG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Minnesota51%
Draw23%
LA Galaxy27%

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.47

Over 2.5

67%

Both to score

68%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 119.2%
  • 219.2%
  • 226.8%
  • 106.7%
  • 126.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

46%Possession49%
42%Territory38%
11%From set plays15%
0.15Chance quality0.13
4.4%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Minnesota, 3 for LA Galaxy. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.