Major League Soccer · Matchweek 26
San Jose Earthquakes
SAN
Los Angeles FC
LOS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
San Jose39%
Draw27%
LAFC34%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.34
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession48%
37%Territory42%
36%From set plays22%
0.15Chance quality0.12
4.1%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for San Jose, 3 for LAFC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 372 matches, not the full season.